The Bears were 7-3 in games decided by a TD or less. Historically, that number evens out through the years, so it's very likely the Bears regress back toward the mean. You also can't ignore that 4 wins came over Jimmy Clausen, Joe Webb, Drew Stanton, and Tyler Thigpen.
I'd love to see them do well, but they have a below avg offense that really didn't get any better, a new rule was put in place that eliminates one of their distinct advantages as field position was a game they played rather well, and their defense, while solid, just won't likely be good enough to overcome the other factors. Add in the probability of more injury issues and I wish I could come up with more than 7 wins, but I can't.